Against this very gloomy world scenario it was truly heart-warming and a huge relief to hear Mr. Chidambaram (former Finance Minister) emphasize that India is nowhere near a recession. Not only that, even though the country’s growth may moderate to a level between 7 and 8 per cent (as opposed to 3 consecutive years of plus 9 percent ) yet, India would still be the second fastest growing large economy in the world in the current juncture of global economic slowdown. Now that is truly cause for comfort!
Policy initiatives by the Indian Government are afoot to tackle the global situation and devise solutions to protect the domestic economy as best as we can. India is in talks with the World Bank to double its annual loan assistance to India from the current $3 billion to $6 billion. For fiscal consolidation, the Government has also provided for more expenditure in the current year as a counter cyclical measure.
Even FII investments in India have turned positive in November 2008, after net selling by them in September and October 2008 due to redemption pressures from abroad. The share market has shown positive movements and the inflation has been contained!
Obviously there are sectors which are hard-hit due to the inter-linkages with world economies e.g. India's IT and IT-enabled services (IT-ITES) industry, where the United States accounts for the largest share-a over 50 percent--of the Indian software and outsourcing market. But even this space has the silver lining amid the gloom - the number of acquisitions by Indian IT-ITES companies in the United States during the first two months of 2008, increased by nearly 75 percent. Additionally, India's domestic demand is booming too. Yet another blessing in disguise is that the sub-prime crisis, slowing economy and fear of layoffs in the United States has accelerated the desire of India-born professionals based in the United States to return to their home soil.
As for the current monetary policy, the Reserve Bank of India announced a reduction of the cash reserve ratio (CRR) for scheduled banks by 50 basis points to 8.5 per cent of net demand and time liabilities (NDTL) (beginning October 11,2008). Clearly this was intended towards injecting liquidity into domestic financial markets. Again on 6th December, 2008 RBI cut its key short term rates – the repo and reverse repo – by one percentage point each ( to 6.5 per cent from 7.5 cent and the reverse repo to 5 per cent from 6 per cent).
We trust that the recent reduction in interest rates and various other measurers announced by the Reserve Bank of India will put certain core sectors, including real estate and automobile, back on track.
It is amply evident that the macroeconomic fundamentals of the Indian economy are strong and resilient and that India's financial system is sound, well-capitalized and well-regulated. Money and forex markets in India have been operating in a relatively orderly manner.